Thailand Elections

The ruling Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party is set to win another four years on Feb 6. At the end of that four years Thailand will be either:

1. A dictatorship. Prime Minister Thaksin is clearly a megalomaniac who has repeatedly shown his disdain for his critics and the political opposition.
2. A economic disaster. In order to increase his support among the population and consolidate his political control of the country, Prime Minister Thaksin has implemented a huge number of populist spending programs which the country cannot afford. He has encouraged Thais to spend money and go into debt, which has provided a short term stimulus to the Thai economy, but which many economists have warned may do long term damage.

A third an unlikely alternative is that the TRT will not survive another four year term. Thais might wake up and elect enough opposition members of parliament for them to mount an effective opposition to Thai Rak Thai policies and arrogance. No single opposition party will be able to do this, but the Democrats, the Mahachon, and the increasingly disgruntled "coalition partner" Chart Thai may win enough seats to combine forces and keep Thaksin "honest". This would required at least 201 seats out of 500 between them, whereas they currently seem set to win only about 150-160 between them.

The other possibility is that serious cracks will appear within the Thai Rak Thai by certain factions that are unhappy with Thaksin's dictatorial style. The Wang Nam Yen(sp?) faction led by Sanoh Thienthong is reportedly very miffed by the placement of their members on the TRT party list for the upcoming election. Candidates on the party list do not run for a particular constituency but are elected based on the number of votes recieved for the party on a nation-wide basis. Candidates on the party list are ranked, and those highest in the ranking are the first to be elected. The Wang Nam Yen candidates have been placed relatively low on the list even though they were instrumental in securing the TRT majority in 2000. The defection of a group like the Wang Nam Yen to the opposition could be sufficient to cause the eventual downfall of the Thai Rak Thai government. Unfortunately, the chances of this happening are fairly small.

One hopeful note in the Thai political scene is that former Interior Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Purachai "Puritan" Piusomboon has decided to leave politics and go live with his family in New Zealand. Purachai was the architect of the governments "Social Order" campaign, which involves such things as closing bars early and forcing people enjoying a night out on the town to piss in a bottle to see if they are on drugs. Purachai is a teetotaler and (I believe) a born again Christian, and appears to think everyone else should be just like him (saying their nightly prayers at 10AM and asleep by 10:30). The one good thing I have to say about Thaksin is that he eventually got sick and tired of this twisted but inexplicably popular little man, and moved him out of the powerful Interior portfolio into the less influential Deputy Prime Minister role.